* Q4 sales 4% above our ests. at SEK 231m, for 6% org. growth * Adj. EBIT SEK 8m vs. ABGSCe 22m * Trading at 8x-7x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA adj.
ANNONS
Solid sales but material opex growth
Q4 came in above expectations on sales, but materially below on EBIT. Careium delivered sales of SEK 231m (4% vs ABGSCe 221m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth ex. FX of 6.3% (2.4pp vs ABGSCe 3.9%). The gross margin decreased slightly to 43.7% (-2.0pp vs ABGSCe 45.7%). Sales in Sweden were negatively impacted by the accounting of financial leases, which had an effect of SEK 13.5m. Excluding the impact of the classification of financial leases, organic growth would have been 13%. EBIT amounted to SEK 8m (-62% vs ABGSCe 22m), for a margin of 3.6% (-6.4pp vs ABGSCe 10%), vs. 11.6% Q4'24. Opex came in at SEK -93m (20% vs ABGSCe -77m), which is a 23% increase y-o-y. Careium comments on short-term margin pressure, however, it did not report any non-recurring items in Q4. FCF in Q4 amounted to SEK 30m. This is an increase of SEK 14m y-o-y. FCF was materially above our expectations, mainly due to significantly higher than expected changes in WC. Moreover, Careium reported a "change in financial lease receivables" of SEK 12m, which has previously not been specified.
Margin pressure to remain throughout H1'26
Careium comments on several factors that affected the EBIT margin negatively. The main theme seems to be long-term initiatives to improve structural capital. This includes integrating historical M&A, increased headcount as well as phasing out outdated assets. Moreover, the cost base was additionally increased by upfront costs from a new large Norwegian customer. These various negative effects are expected to remain during H1'26, to later decrease. Careium did not provide guidance for 2026, but mentioned that the impact of financial lease accounting will be significantly reduced in Q1'26 and forward, which will support both growth and overall margins.
Valuation and conference call details
On our unrevised estimates, the share is trading at 8x-7x ‘26-'27e EV/EBITA adj. The negative mechanical effect for consensus '26e-'27e EBIT should be within a low-to-mid-teens range. However, we expect margin revisions to be contingent on the nature and longevity of the opex increase, which we hope to get more details on during the conference call at 10.30 CET.
