Adjusted EBITA was slightly weaker than we expected in Q4. ESL Shipping has been suffering from a weak market environment, but Aspo is still considering both strategic options for the segment: a separate listing or a divestment. However, the segment's weak performance could make it difficult to achieve an attractive valuation in a potential sale. We believe the probability of a demerger has even increased after the Q4 2025 report. Aspo's full‑year guidance was also slightly weaker than we anticipated, with EBITA guided to be above EUR 29m. We lower our estimates slightly, owing to the soft shipping market. Our long‑term growth and margin assumptions still support the same fair value range of EUR 6.7-8.2, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations.
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