SinterCast: Sees growth outpacing market recovery - ABG
* Sales +1%, adj. EBIT +7% vs. ABGSCe * Sets 8m EE milestone for '31, supported by new programmes * Sees market recovery in '26, forecasts above market growth
ANNONS
Q4 results
Sales fell 26% y-o-y and were 1% above our estimate. Annualised engine equivalents produced were 2.6m, falling 16% y-o-y, and were thereby 4% below our estimate, primarily due to North American commercial vehicle production being down 57% y-o-y, while Europe was up 20%. Sampling cups sold decreased 12% y-o-y, and were 25% above our estimate. With a margin of 22.0%, 1.1pp above our estimate, EBIT adj. was 7% above our estimate, driven by lower opex. The board proposed a DPS of SEK 3.0 (7.0).
Estimate changes
The Q4 numbers in isolation imply EBIT adj. comes up 1%. The company expects cost reductions of SEK 5m in '26 as a result of the retirement of the company's Technical Director and CEO (we have SG&A declining by 3m y-o-y). With several new high-volume programmes set to start production in the coming years, the company now targets to reach the 8m EE milestone (peak monthly annualised production) in '31. The company also sees signs that a market recovery will begin in '26, and forecasts above market growth.
Company valuation
Over the past three months, the share has returned -9%, compared to the +6% of the OMX Stockholm Allshare. The share is currently trading at 26x-17x '25e-'27e P/E, compared to its 10-year historical median of 23x-15x.
