* More of the same * Pricer transition a temporary drag, offset by Vusion momentum * Fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share
ANNONS
More of the same
Q4'25 saw flat revenues (+1% y-o-y) and adjusted EBITDA of ~NOK 2m (NOK -5m reported, including NOK 7m in M&A costs). For Q1'26, we expect more of the same with no major surprises. On revenues, we pencil in NOK 356m, up 3% y-o-y. StrongPoint delivered a strong 43% gross margin in '25, but we model this slightly lower at ~42% for Q1'26, yielding NOK 150m in gross profit (+2% y-o-y). On costs, '25 saw clean opex grow 7% y-o-y - a trend we expect to continue through Q1'26 and FY'26. This brings our Q1'26 clean EBITDA estimate to NOK 4m. We make limited estimate revisions ahead of the Q1 report, and our focus will be on comments regarding UK, order picking and the Vusion partnership.
Pricer transition temporary drag, offset by Vusion momentum
The phase-out of Pricer-related recurring revenue (NOK 52m in 2025) will weigh on near-term financials through 2026. However, the Vusion partnership has already delivered NOK 90m in installation revenue and NOK 19m gross profit in 2025, partially offsetting the ~NOK 26m gross profit lost from Pricer. Management views the transition as strategically positive, expanding the addressable market beyond traditional ESLs to include battery-less labels, shelf-edge cameras and retail media infrastructure, while enabling cross-selling and integrated picking solutions leveraging Vusion's capabilities.
Fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share
The past few years have not been smooth sailing, as project delays and long decision cycles have hampered momentum. However, StrongPoint delivered improved EBITDA and recurring revenue in FY25, pointing to strengthening core fundamentals. Over the medium to long term, we expect grocery retailers to increase technology investments. Our DCF indicates an equity value of ~NOK 600m, and we see a fair value range of NOK 8-18 per share.
