Midsona: Growth lagging but execution improving - ABG
* Muted sales more than offset by margin expansion * Limited estimate changes on market uncertainties * Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of 8x
ANNONS
Strong margins made up for soft sales
Q1 was slightly below expectations on sales, but materially stronger than expected on adj. EBIT (19% above our estimate), as both the gross and EBIT margins were ~1pp higher than anticipated. We had anticipated soft sales from contract manufacturing and licenced brands due to terminated contracts and the Spain fire. The soft growth from own consumer brands (0.1% org), however, was disappointing. Midsona partly attributes this to a timing issue with the grocery trade window in Sweden, but does not quantify how large this effect was. We assume a slight spill-over of volumes into Q2e on this. Overall, Q1 marked a strong start to 2026, and we are encouraged by the margin improvements across the board.
2026 looks promising, with one caveat
The report provides some insight into key factors to watch for the remainder of 2026. Firstly, we expect organic growth to pick up in Q2'26e on light comps and grocery sales in Sweden. Secondly, we highlight that the acquisition of Risenta will be consolidated in Q2e. While we had hoped for more clarity on the margin profile on Risenta, management doubled down on the acquisition being margin accretive. Finally, management commented on possible future raw material price increases (see page x for more details).
Estimates slightly up, trading at 8x NTM EV/EBITA
We leave our sales estimates relatively unchanged, and raise '26e-'28e adj. EBIT by ~1%. Our EPS estimates are up on materially lower than expected net financials. Q1 gave us confidence in underlying improvements, but we keep a cautious eye on market developments. Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~8x NTM EV/EBITA, which is ~25% below current peer multiples. We note that peers are in turn trading ~20% below their 10-year historical median of ~14x NTM EV/EBITA.
