Redeye makes three model changes ahead of Catella's Q1 2026 results (8 May), leaving its investment management revenue estimate at SEK253m — ~SEK45m below FactSet consensus of SEK298m — with corporate finance revenue cut to SEK66m against consensus of SEK82m. The revision swings group EBIT from its prior estimate of +SEK11m to -SEK21m and EPS from -SEK0.03 to -SEK0.36, driven by fee-rate assumptions rather than AUM. A bond buyback completed 1 April reduces interest expense from Q2 2026. Sentiment entering the print is markedly negative: the stock has fallen 20% year-to-date, with the bulk of the de-rating concentrated in the 14% single-day decline on Q4 2025 results, where an underwhelming dividend on a large cash position disappointed investors. Redeye believes this positions the bar low — corporate finance weakness is largely reflected in current estimates, and a credible investment management print could produce an asymmetric positive reaction relative to the degree of pessimism priced in.
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