Ahead of Suominen's Q1 report, we lower 2026E-27E comparable EBITDA by 16-28% owing to increasing raw material, energy and logistics costs. Roughly half of Suominen's energy consumption relates to natural gas, while fossil-based raw materials represent some 37% of total raw materials. While the company can likely push increasing raw material prices onto prices, this typically comes with a lag. Hence, we believe 2026 will be a challenging year. If the Middle East situation continues, we see elevated profit guidance risk for 2026. We derive a lower DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 1.0-1.6 (1.3-2.0) per share.
LÄS MER
