Ahead of Xplora's Q1 report, we decrease our 2026-28 EBITDA estimates by 4-6%, owing to slightly lower device sales for the Kids segment and a slightly slower increase in the Senior conversion rate during 2026. We argue that rolling out subscriptions in the Senior segment is an important element of the company's aim to reach one million subscribers, and the emporia acquisition is a key driver for capturing the important German market, with potential new MVNOs in Austria, Switzerland or Italy. We expect Xplora to reach 944,000 subscribers in 2028 and estimate a 2025-28 service revenue CAGR of 33%. We adjust our DCF- and multiples-based fair value range to NOK 49-93 (54-100), implying 2027E EV/EBIT of 7-14x.
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