Energy Save: Topline beat, Q2 weakness ahead - ABG
* Sales +19% vs. ABGSCe, EBIT SEK -4m (vs. -5m) * ODM/WL down 27% y-o-y but ES-branded sales up 99% * Inventory levels down, FCF positive in the quarter (SEK +1.8m)
ANNONS
Q1 results
Q1 sales were SEK 49m (-8% y-o-y and +19% vs. ABGSCe 42m). Residential continues to be the sales driver, with sales of SEK 44m (vs. 49m LY), while Commercial sales remain softer but were up slightly y-o-y (SEK 3m, +50% y-o-y). While ODM/WL sales were down y-o-y, we find it encouraging that ES-branded sales increased in the quarter to SEK 16m (+99% y-o-y), now representing 32% of sales (vs. 15% LY). EBIT came in at SEK -4m (vs. ABGSCe -5m, -4m LY). Moreover, although we find it positive that inventory levels were down, and FCF was on the positive side at SEK 1.8m (-20m LY). The company ended the quarter with a cash balance of SEK 24m (29m LY).
Estimate changes and outlook
On numbers alone, '26e-'28e sales is impacted by +3-2% and EBIT by SEK +0.5m (vs. FY'26e estimate of SEK -1m). On outlook management reiterates the break-even ambition for FY'26. Moreover, Q2'26 is guided to be weak as ODM/WL customers rebalance inventories, mirroring the Q2'25 pattern (when group sales troughed at SEK 15m). A rebound is expected in H2'26e (in line with our estimates).
Valuation
Prior to today's report, the share was up 49% L3M and is on our pre-report estimates and is trading at 10x-5x '27e-'28e P/E on our pre-report estimates.
