Tonies: Q1 confirms to group's growth trajectory - NuWays AG Research
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Tonies: Q1 confirms to group's growth trajectory - NuWays AG Research

Tonies delivered a strong Q1 2026, with group revenue of € 126m, +35% yoy in constant currency, largely in line with eNuW and consensus of € 123m. Reported growth was slightly lower at 29% due to USD/EUR headwinds (should fade from June onwards). Next to an earlier Easter providing a modest timing tailwind, Toniebox 2 hardware momentum remains exceptional, with box revenues up 54% yoy at € 25m; figurines +25% yoy at € 95m. Full-year guidance confirmed. Management expects >€ 760m revenue (eNuW: 793m, eCons € 778m) and 9-11% adj. EBITDA margin (eNuW: 10.0%, eCons 10.4%).

Current risks largely mitigated. US tariffs are being managed via sourcing flexibility, pricing levers, and secured inventory. Freight is largely unaffected through routing via the Cape of Good Hope and low per-unit costs on figurines. On FX, natural hedges in the cost base limit P&L impact despite top-line headwinds. Consumer sentiment risk is mitigated by category resilience; families consistently prioritise quality children's experiences. CMD, a potential catalyst. on June 18th, we expect the company to shed additional light on mid term targets, international expansion plans and Tonieplay monetisation.

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged € 14.50 PT based on DCF.
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