Flughafen Wien: Cleared for take-off; Up to BUY - NuWays AG Research
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Flughafen Wien: Cleared for take-off; Up to BUY - NuWays AG Research

We upgrade FLU to BUY. The shares have delivered nearly no return since our June 2023 Hold initiation, yet the underlying case has notably improved: the operational base is stronger, the equity story has de-risked, and the group remains exposed to structurally growing air-travel demand.

Q1 26 results are due on May 21 (see p.2). We expect modest top-line growth and slightly better earnings, with EBIT seen up 3.3% yoy, as the 2026 airport-charge cut is partly offset by lower incentive plans. April traffic was soft, as expected (also see p.2), reflecting the summer-schedule transition (reduced LCC capacity) and an unfavourable Easter calendar (March 2026 vs April 2025). Both remain fully consistent with the full-year guidance for PAX.

Lastly, on the Middle East: direct route exposure is modest and already in the numbers; the second- order risk, i.e. higher energy prices weighing on travel demand, is cyclical in nature and not specific to FWAG. Historically, air-travel demand has proven resilient to geopolitical and energy shocks, with modest and short-lived declines outside of COVID-19 (the 1979 oil crisis, for example, troughed at just -1% by 1981 vs 1979; Roland Berger). We work off a medium-term de-escalation base case; on that view, today's depressed PAX reads as an entry point, in a structurally growing market.

BUY (old: HOLD), unchanged PT € 57, based on DCF.
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