* We cut '26e EBITA by 15%, but lift '27e/'28e EBITA by 9%/8% * We forecast a ~50% EBITA CAGR from '26e to '28e... * ... leading EV/EBITA to drop from 13.6x in '26e to 4.7x in '28e
ANNONS
'27e/'28e EBITA +9%/8% on raised synergy target...
At first glance Xplora delivered a soft Q1 report with EBITDA 35% below FactSet consensus on lower ARPU (down 7% y-o-y) and Kids device sales. But, a large part of the miss came from NOK 10m lower R&D capitalisation vs. Q1'25. If it hadn't been for this, EBITDA would have been NOK 38m, up 30% y-o-y. Still below expectations, but not a disaster given that Q1 only tends to be 2-7% of full-year EBITDA. Also, Xplora lifted the Doro cost synergy target from NOK 30m to NOK 50m. We cut '26e-'28e revenues by 3-4% on lower ARPU and lower device ASP due to a stronger NOK vs. EUR. But we also cut our opex estimates on higher synergies. This reduces '26e EBITA by 15%, but lifts '27e/'28e EBITA by 9%/8%.
Xplora has the tools it needs to succeed with Doro Connect
With ~1.2m senior phones sold annually, converting senior customers to recurring subscribers is the key value driver. Doro Connect is soon live on its own web stores across all markets, after which a retail rollout will follow. We have looked at the ROI of giving a free feature phone in exchange for a subscription and found that as long as the GM is 60% or higher, the LTV/CAC is above 3.5x which means a very attractive ROI. Hence, Xplora has the tools it needs to drive a high conversion rate in the senior segment. Keep in mind that we have assumed some CAC in our estimates which is directly expensed over the P&L, underestimating the underlying earnings. If we instead were to capitalise it and depreciate it over five years, '27e/'28e EBITA would increase by ~NOK 30m.
Fair value range of NOK 40-130/share
Xplora is now trading at 13.6x '26e EV/EBITA, but due to the full effect of senior subscriptions not really having an impact before '27e this drops to 7.7x in '27e and further to 4.7x in '28e. Our DCF points to NOK 56-130/share.
