We trim 2026E-28E adjusted EBITA by 2% ahead of the Q2 report due on 15 July, mainly due to persistent weakness in the European printing market and continued geopolitical uncertainty. However, we still model 10% EBITA growth for 2026, implying a ~100bp margin uplift y/y to 7.4% at the group level, with Supply Chain Solutions (SCS) acting as the driver with a ~150bp margin uplift as cost savings continue to bear fruit and operational leverage materialises. As overcapacity becomes less of a problem throughout the coming years, with volumes showing signs of picking up and expected exits of some capacity, we view Elanders as well positioned to generate a ~9% EBITA CAGR for 2025-28E, with upside potential from a stronger-than-expected market recovery. We forecast lease-adjusted net debt to decrease to 3.9x for 2026 as earnings and cash flows improve. We derive a slightly lower fair value range of SEK 44-95 (49-99), implying ~10-12x EV/EBITA.
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