Nexam Chemical: We expect a firmer sequential quarter - ABG
* Report out on 14 July * Q2e sales of SEK 55m (+1% y-o-y), EBIT SEK -1.8m (-2.8m) * Cost economics increasingly favour recycled content
ANNONS
Q2 expectations
We estimate Q2 sales of SEK 55m, up 1% y-o-y despite tough comps in the quarter. We estimate sales of SEK 23m (+2% y-o-y) for Performance Chemicals, driven by continued growth in Recycling (~15% of sales in Q1), where a US recycling customer is stepping up its use of Nexam's additives in rigid food packaging to an ~SEK 11m annual run-rate from Q2. In addition, we expect High Temperature to normalise after the Q1 destocking. Moreover, we look for Masterbatch to hold up and estimate SEK 32m (+11% q-o-q, +2% y-o-y). On EBIT, we estimate SEK -1.8m (-2.8m).
Estimate changes
We leave '26 sales and EBIT broadly unchanged but lower '27e-'28e EBIT by SEK 5m. We continue to forecast Nexam reaching positive EBIT in '27e.
Our long-term view is unchanged. Virgin plastic prices remain well above 2025 levels, and although they have been easing from their crisis peaks since mid-June, the economic case for recycled content has strengthened. Commercial traction is broadening, as well, with the US food-packaging ramp underway, a new Canadian customer approaching commercialisation, and the Palmer Holland agreement plus new distributors in France and Turkey extending the pipeline. At the Q1 report, management reiterated its ambition to double Recycling sales in '26 vs. '25. The stock is trading at '26e-'28e EV/Sales of 1.5x-1.2x on our estimates.
