Ahead of Xplora's Q2 report, we lower our 2026-28 EBITDA estimates by 2-10%, mainly due to the emporia acquisition and a slightly slower increase in the Senior conversion rate, where we expect Xplora to reach steady-state conversion in 2028. We argue that rolling out subscriptions in the Senior segment is an important element of the company's aim to reach one million subscribers, and the Doro and emporia acquisitions are key drivers for capturing the important German market, with potential new MVNOs in Austria, Switzerland or Italy. We expect Xplora to reach 991,000 subscribers in 2028 and estimate a 2025-28 service revenue CAGR of 35%. We derive a narrower DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of NOK 59-83 (54-94), implying 2027E EV/EBIT of 10-14x.
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