Nolato: Slight miss vs. cons on higher group costs - ABG
* Adj. EBITA SEK 253m (-7% vs. ABG, -3% vs. MFN cons) * We expect cons EBITA to come down by 2-3% * Share trading at 13-11x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA
ANNONS
Q2 outcome
Sales came in at SEK 2,454m (-1% vs. ABG 2,467m, 0% vs. Modular Finance cons 2,453m), up 2% y-o-y, of which +4% was organic (ABG +4%, no cons). Adj. EBITA was SEK 253m (-7% vs ABG 271m, -3% vs. cons 262m), for an adj. EBITA margin of 10.3% (ABG 11.0%, cons 10.7%), and this excludes one-off severnce pay costs of SEK -6m reported under group costs. Even adjusted for these, group costs were higher than usual, which drove the miss, while both segments were in line with or above consensus expectations on EBITA (Medical in line, Engineered +4%). FCF amounted to SEK 154 (ABG 186m), for a cash conversion of 91%.
Outlook and estimate changes
The company does not issue formal guidance. However, it mentions 1) GLP-1 commercial deliveries from the new Hungary site started in Q2, and will continue to ramp upp according to plan, and 2) Q2 saw temporary margin effects from higher input costs, while prices to customers will be raised in coming quarters, i.e. margin should improve ahead. All in all, we expect fairly minor downgrades to cons EBITA of 2-3%.
Valuation and conference call details
The report was on the softer side, but nothing too dramatic, with a slight margin-driven miss vs. cons on an adjusted basis, but some indications in the management commentary that margins should improve ahead. On our pre-Q2 estimates, the share trades at 13-11x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA, compared to its historical average fwd. multiple of 15x. Finally, the company will host a conference call at 08:45 CEST, register here.
