Lumi Gruppen: Margins strong, but softer intake weighs - ABG
* H1 above expectations, driven by strong margins and cost control * Soft autumn intake guidance leads to cuts in '26e-'28e estimates * Fair value range of NOK 14-20
ANNONS
H1'26 strong
Group revenue was NOK 277m, 5% above our estimate of NOK 265m. Adj. EBITA was NOK 56m (for a 20.1% margin), above our estimate of NOK 46m. The margin beat was mainly driven by Sonans, which delivered lower-than-expected opex, and by ONH, which grew by ~15%, supported by new online programmes and a higher share of recurring revenues. This implies AY'25/26 revenues of NOK 549m, +16% y-o-y, and adj. EBITA of NOK 109m (19.8% margin).
Estimate cuts based on soft autumn intake
For the 2026/27 intake, Sonans is guided to end the academic year 10-15% behind the prior year, compared to our estimate of +5%. Edrupt (EnkelEksamen) is consolidated from February 2026, and remains on track for continued double-digit growth. ONH is expected to be broadly flat, with growth in recurring revenue from continuing students offsetting softer new intake. As a result, we cut our '27e-'28e revenue estimates by 12-14% and adj. EBITA by 17-21%. The lower opex in Q2 shows solid cost control, and together with margin accretion from Bjørknes and synergies, partly mitigates the margin decline from lower volume. The company now states there is an indication of impairment and that it will update its goodwill impairment assessment for Sonans after the enrolment period is closed. A trading update covering the final autumn intake is likely to be issued by Lumi in six to eight weeks.
Fair value range of NOK 14-20
A peer valuation on '26e-'28e multiples points to NOK 14-20/sh. Lumi is trading at '27e/'28e EV/EBIT of ~12x/10.8x and a P/E of ~19x/17.9x. Given Lumi's strong position in the Norwegian market, we believe that a premium could be justified, with an implied value range of 14–20, equating to an EV/EBIT of 9.4–12.5.
