Petrolia Noco: Brage shutdown masked by price and liftings - ABG
* Q2 EBITDA NOK 100m vs. ABGSCe NOK 85m on overlift * Limited underlying long-term production changes * Fair value range NOK 1.5-4.5
ANNONS
Q2 production 1.88 kboe/d, impacted by Brage shutdown
Q2'26 production of 1.88 kboe/d came in marginally below ABGSCe of 1.96 kboe/d, with the quarter down 1.46 kboe/d q-o-q on a five-week planned maintenance shutdown at Brage. The production shortfall was offset by strong realised prices of USD 105.8/bbl, driving revenues to NOK 218m vs. ABGSCe NOK 171m. The revenue beat was almost entirely driven by an overlift, and EBITDA landed at NOK 100m vs. ABGSCe NOK 85m. Adjusting for lifting effects, all underlying operational metrics were in line with our estimates. Petrolia Noco repaid NOK 48.3m of debt in Q2 and still grew its cash pile from NOK 98m to NOK 145m, cutting gross debt to NOK 187m. We estimate a cash position of NOK 200m by end-Q3.
Minor H2'26e tweaks and Q2 beat prompts '26e EBITDA up 7%
The somewhat lower production was partly pre-flagged; we track monthly data from Lime Petroleum (34% interest in Brage), which showed April below expectations and May fully shut in, with maintenance running longer than initially scheduled. Production restarted on 3 June, and the July update from Lime confirms output has returned to more normalised levels. Minor moving parts in our H2'26 modelling net to an unchanged '26e production figure. The stronger Q2 numbers drives our '26e EBITDA up 7%, while our '27e-'28e estimates are broadly untouched. Talisker (H2 2027 start-up target) provides the next production step-up, though we await more details before including it in our estimates. Our oil price deck is unchanged; we reiterate USD 75/bbl from '27e.
Fair value range of NOK 1.5-4.5/sh
Assuming a long-term Brent price of USD 50-85/bbl, we estimate a NAV of NOK 1.5-4.5/sh for Petrolia. Using a 13% WACC, the current share price implies a discounted oil price of USD 60/bbl on ABGSC estimates.
