MHP Hotel: H1 optics are worse than operations; chg. - NuWays AG Research
Following Friday's guidance cut, MHP released its H1 report yesterday, confirming the picture.
ANNONS
H1 sales came in at € 99.3m (eNuW: € 98.3m), up 25% yoy. Growth was significantly carried by the new hotels (Conrad and Hyatt Vienna), which added € 17m, implying organic growth of 3.8%. Occupancy came in at 72.0%, ADR at € 219 and RevPAR at € 158. Mind you, the reported rate data is adjusted for Conrad only. The Andaz Vienna was rebranded to Hyatt Regency over Easter, which both disrupted Q2 trading and structurally lowers portfolio ADR, so like-for-like rate erosion is materially smaller than the reported 1% decline suggests.
Overall, the case is intact, as the cut is largely a timing issue (Conrad), not structural. Besides this, the company remains the leading white-label operator in the DACH premium segment, with privileged access to high-barrier assets that come with limited capital commitment of its own. This allows the platform to add about 1,000 rooms by FY29e without touching the balance sheet. With premium demand structurally unbroken and the Conrad ramp-up a question of when rather than if, the earnings power of the enlarged portfolio should come through from FY27e onwards. At current levels, the market is not at all pricing this.
Changes in estimates reflect the FY26 guidance adjustment as well as a more conservate approach on return to normal from Middle East travellers.
We thus reiterate BUY with a new PT of € 3.50 (old: € 3.70) based on DCF.
