Incap: Strong reported growth but margins need proof - Nordea
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Incap: Strong reported growth but margins need proof - Nordea

We expect almost 40% y/y growth in Q3 net sales. However, adjusted EBITA growth could be only 23% y/y. Incap's EBITA growth has not been as good as its revenue growth, which is why the company downgraded its full-year EBITA guidance as early as July 2026. However, we believe H2 2026 should be clearly stronger in terms of EBITA than in H1 2026. We also expect the company to reaffirm its full-year guidance in the Q3 report. Our fair value range remains at EUR 10.6-12.9, based on our DCF analysis, backed by a peer group comparison. Incap's valuation looks attractive compared with its peer group, but uncertainty related to sustainable underlying profitability in the medium term is weighing on the valuation multiples.

We expect almost 40% y/y growth in Q3 net sales. However, adjusted EBITA growth could be only 23% y/y. Incap's EBITA growth has not been as good as its revenue growth, which is why the company downgraded its full-year EBITA guidance as early as July 2026. However, we believe H2 2026 should be clearly stronger in terms of EBITA than in H1 2026. We also expect the company to reaffirm its full-year guidance in the Q3 report. Our fair value range remains at EUR 10.6-12.9, based on our DCF analysis, backed by a peer group comparison. Incap's valuation looks attractive compared with its peer group, but uncertainty related to sustainable underlying profitability in the medium term is weighing on the valuation multiples.
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