Alcadon - Prepare for high organic growth in ‘22 - ABG

FY’21 sales up 58% y-o-y ‘22e-‘23e adj. EBIT down 3-4% 14x ‘22e EV/EBITA Q4 roughly in line with expectations Alcadon’s Q4 results were roughly in line with expectations. Sales were SEK 206m (2% vs ABGSCe, 1% vs. consensus), up 89% y-o-y, of which 5% was organic (-1% organic in Sweden, +19% in Norway). Adj. EBIT was 16.6m (-6% vs. ABGSCe, -9% vs. cons.), corresponding to a margin of 8.0% (8.5%) vs. ABGSCe at 8.8% and cons. at 8.9%. For FY’21, sales were SEK 737m, up 58% y-o-y; adj. EBIT was SEK 71m, corresponding to a margin of 9.6% (9.3%). Lastly, the Board proposes a dividend of SEK 0.50 per share. 25% ’21-24e adj. EBIT CAGR We lower our ‘22e-‘23e adj. EBIT estimates by 3% and 4%, respectively, on slightly higher cost assumptions. High sick leave and pandemic-related restrictions have had a negative impact in the quarter, mainly affecting operations in Germany. Management expects these issues to continue in Q1’22 but sees them gradually diminishing during H1’22 and expects deliveries to commence in summer ’22. As such, the ramp-up in Germany will be tilted towards H2’22. Despite, we leave our ‘22e sales estimate intact since we believe German project delays should be offset by strong organic growth in other markets (except from Sweden). For ‘23e, we raise our sales estimates with 5% on higher organic growth assumptions (from 5% to 10%). All in all, we forecast a ’21-‘24e adj. EBIT CAGR of 25% driven by strong demand in Germany, Denmark and the DACH (Belgium and Netherlands) regions. Balance sheet allows for 50% M&A add to our ‘22e est The share is trading at ~14x ‘22e EV/EBIT, down from ~20x in Dec. ‘21. Management highlights M&A as a continued growth strategy ahead, which could add ~50% to our ‘22e EBIT estimates if ND/EBITDA was increased to 2.5x (given acquisition multiplies of 5x EV/EBITDA). Läs mer på Introduce