As of Q4, Alcadon started taking notably higher PPA amortisation due to the NWC acquisition, and as a result we switch our "headline number" from EBIT to EBITA, which now better reflects the operational performance, in our view. Due to the larger-than-expected amortisation increase, '23e-'24e EBIT comes down by 4-5%, however the effect would have been ~10% had we not also raised underlying estimates, mainly in the UK. Our new EBITA estimates for '23-'24 are now 5-3% above our old EBIT estimates, which we argue is a more apt comparison.
14x '23e EV/EBITA, 35% '22-'25e adj. EBITA CAGR
The share is trading at 14x '23e EV/EBITA with an adj. EBITA CAGR of 35% for '22-'25e. During this period, we have modelled the adj. EBITA margin going from 6.6% to 9.3%, which is still 1.5pp below the company's "Vision 2025" margin target of 10.8%. If the company reaches its targeted SEK 280m EBITA for '25, that would imply an EV/EBITA multiple of 6.4x; on our estimates it is trading at 10x for '25e, although we note that an additional capital injection could be required to reach the ambitious target.
Aktuellt
SENASTE
