Bildkälla: Stockfoto

Alcadon: Temporary challenges in Germany - ABG

Q3 report due Friday, 22 October
‘21e EBIT down 5% on worsened German market
Fair value range of SEK 45-90 per share intact

We forecast sales of SEK 183m, up 93% y-o-y (5% organic, 87% M&A, 1% FX) in Q3’21e, with the rise mainly driven by: 1) the acquisition of 6X International, 2) recoveries in Sweden and Norway due to the improved pandemic situation allowing for on-site installation work and 3) relatively easy comps (-2% organic Q3’20) supporting organic growth. We estimate EBIT of SEK 19m for a margin of 10.4% (7.1%). We believe Alcadon is in a good position to transfer potential cost inflation to customers given its premium offering and high share of proprietary products (~30% of sales), thereby protecting profitability.

Alcadon is trading at c. 10x EV/EBIT, in line with its three-year average but with significantly improved growth prospects following the acquisition of 6X International and exposure to the important German market. We deem Alcadon to have room for further acquisitions given its respective ‘21e ND/EBITDA and cash/sales of 1.1x and 11%, which could add to our estimates. Finally, we reiterate our fair value range of SEK 45-90.
Börsvärldens nyhetsbrev
ANNONSER