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Alcadon: Weak markets still, M&A adds to growth - SEB

Ahead of the Q3 earnings (due 25 October) we lower our adj. EBITA forecasts by an average of 8% for 2024E-26E as we factor in a continuing muted market outlook for H2. Looking into next year, we estimate sales growth of 13% y/y to c. SEK 2bn and EBITA of SEK 158m (8% margin), implying a current 2025E EV/EBITA of 8x. We revise our DCF based mid-point equity value to SEK 76 (80) (a range of SEK 65-87).

Ahead of the Q3 earnings (due 25 October) we lower our adj. EBITA forecasts by an average of 8% for 2024E-26E as we factor in a continuing muted market outlook for H2. Looking into next year, we estimate sales growth of 13% y/y to c. SEK 2bn and EBITA of SEK 158m (8% margin), implying a current 2025E EV/EBITA of 8x. We revise our DCF based mid-point equity value to SEK 76 (80) (a range of SEK 65-87).
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