AlzeCure has with its seven-project portfolio multiple shots at goal where each, while early stage, represents a potential multibillion-dollar opportunity.
It goes without saying that the past year’s achievements mark management’s extensive experience and competence in drug development and how to sophisticatedly run a research and development company. This is an important asset to recognize, and it should provide the market confidence in the company’s ability to drive the company successfully forward and limit the risk-profile to biological risk factors.
By leveraging its solid financial position and broad drug development strategy – derived from management’s Big Pharma experience – AlzeCure has quickly advanced into early clinical stage and expanded its diversified project portfolio. The company wisely raised sufficient capital in its IPO to fund a development strategy that is de-risked in the high-risk CNS disease area, building a company that is far from being a “one-trick pony”.
With ACD856 (NeuroRestore) and the in-licensed ACD440 (Painless) positioned for further clinical development to begin by the end of the year, we update our valuation of the company to reflect the de-risking progress. We set a 10% likelihood of approval (LOA) for ACD856 and a 15% LOA for ACD440.
We update our rating to Outperform and raise the target price to SEK 16 per share, corresponding to an equity value of approximately SEK 600m non-diluted, derived from risk-adjusted DCF valuation of ACD856 and ACD440.
Given the early stage of the Alzstatin platform and TrkA-NAM project (Painless), and the inherently high-risk profile, we currently consider these to add significant upside to our base case with ACD856 and ACD440.
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