Q3 beat on higher volumes and lower costs, same likely in Q4
ARP reported a Group EBITDA of PLN 125m, which compares to ABGSCe of PLN 63m. ~PLN 29m of the beat was driven by Pulp (Rottneros). Paper EBITDA came in at PLN 97m vs. ABGSCe of PLN 65m. Roughly half of the beat was driven by volumes, while the balance was driven by lower raw material costs and opex. Paper sales volumes were 108kt vs. ABGSCe of 103kt (168kt in Q3'22). We expect Q4 Paper EBIT roughly on par with Q3 as weaker paper prices are being offset by higher volumes. Our Rottneros bridge points towards a clean EBIT of SEK -20-35m in Q4e (PLN -8-14m), driven by maintenance and seasonally higher personnel costs. Including Rottneros, we expect a Q4 Group EBIT of PLN 55-65m.
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