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The greatest excitement regarding Aspo's Q4 results faded when the company downgraded its full-year EBITA guidance to EUR ~30m in December. The weakness is coming from all segments, making it hard for Aspo to improve greatly in Q1 2025, in our view. Aspo is not a US company, but a possible trade war in 2025 does not support the overall economic environment, and the company clearly needs a bull market to reach its financial targets. Our estimates point to a fair value range of EUR 6.6-8.1 per share, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. P/E of 8.2x for 2025E does not look challenging, but earnings revision momentum has remained negative. A clear positive trigger, which could release value potential, could be missing in the near term. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
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