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Aspo: CMD notes - Evli Research

ESL’s long-term 12% EBIT margin potential is still there

While the dry bulk cargo market has been hit by the pandemic ESL has not lost market share. Large vessel operations have been especially challenging due to a lack of cargo demand, however smaller vessel types, such as those of AtoB@C, have performed better. ESL in fact reports the business has won market share in e.g. wood-based products shipments. The fleet can also serve e.g. the Baltic wind power industry in the effort to scale up renewable energy production in the area. In the long-term the Arctic area (incl. Russia) holds strong cargo volume potential for larger vessels. Such vessels’ cargo volumes began to increase in late Q3. ESL’s capacity is now fully in use. In our opinion dry bulk cargo markets are already on track to normalize in tandem with many industrial sectors even if the pandemic is yet to fade away from more everyday life. ESL also says it has achieved admin costs reductions that are not just one-offs in nature.

Telko already achieved long-term margin targets

Telko’s recent working capital management and pricing control measures have already produced significant results in cash conversion cycle, and there remains some more room for improvement relative to certain benchmarks. Telko now has established the lubricants business besides the plastics and chemicals ones. We believe lubricants is an area that can deliver more good results in the long-term as the business is still quite small relative to plastics and chemicals. We see Telko’s reinforced core is now better positioned to capture profitable volumes. Telko has indeed already managed to top the 6% EBIT margin target during the last two quarters. Leipurin however is yet to deliver gains towards its 5% EBIT margin target.

Significant EBIT improvement appears possible next year

Although the long-term financial target confirmation is good news as such focus nevertheless remains on more short-term profitability development. Our TP is now EUR 8.00 (7.25); we retain our BUY rating since profitability continues to improve and SOTP valuation supports further upside potential.
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