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A particularly good shipping market was the main reason for Aspo's clear EBIT beat versus market consensus (Infront) in Q4. Full-year guidance indicates flat growth in comparable EBIT, although still some 5% above consensus (Refinitiv). Given median EV/EBIT of 14.7x over the past 22 years, EV/EBIT of 10.7x for 2022E does not appear high. However, risks related to Russia and Ukraine could weigh on the valuation multiples the market accepts for Aspo. After adjusting our estimates, we calculate a fair value range of EUR 11.6-14.3 (11.2-13.8) per share, equally weighting our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
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