Aspo: Q3 EBITA below consensus, FY 2026 guidance unchanged - Nordea
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Aspo: Q3 EBITA below consensus, FY 2026 guidance unchanged - Nordea

The ESL Shipping segment suffered from low utilisation rates, resulting in group-level adjusted EBITA falling below our expectations in Q3. The Telko segment, meanwhile, posted adjusted EBITA slightly above our Q3 forecast. The full-year outlook remains unchanged, with Aspo guiding for year-on-year improvement in comparable EBITA in 2026. The demerger will allow Telko to focus on executing its compounder strategy from 2027 onwards. ESL Shipping could implicitly be valued at EUR 2.9 per share, assuming a value of EUR 4.7 per share for Telko and a fair value of EUR 7.6 per share for the current Aspo group. The demerger is expected to be completed by 31 December 2026.

The ESL Shipping segment suffered from low utilisation rates, resulting in group-level adjusted EBITA falling below our expectations in Q3. The Telko segment, meanwhile, posted adjusted EBITA slightly above our Q3 forecast. The full-year outlook remains unchanged, with Aspo guiding for year-on-year improvement in comparable EBITA in 2026. The demerger will allow Telko to focus on executing its compounder strategy from 2027 onwards. ESL Shipping could implicitly be valued at EUR 2.9 per share, assuming a value of EUR 4.7 per share for Telko and a fair value of EUR 7.6 per share for the current Aspo group. The demerger is expected to be completed by 31 December 2026.
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