We now see H2 EBIT EUR 1.2m higher than before
With respect to Q4 EBIT we revise our estimates down for ESL (from EUR 2.8m to EUR 1.7m) and Leipurin (from EUR 0.9m to EUR 0.5m) while we now expect Telko to reach EUR 2.8m (prev. EUR 2.3m). In our view Aspo’s guidance seems a bit conservative considering Telko’s recent development (that is unless we are overestimating the q/q profitability recovery rates for ESL and Leipurin). Although the pandemic continues to worsen some more, this spring’s initial shock is now history and supply chains are better prepared. In this sense we see it highly plausible that Aspo’s segments, essentially industrial logistics services providers, can show some meaningful improvement next year as well.
A lot of uncertainty remains but we view upside more likely
We still see Aspo’s valuation attractive in terms of SOTP, however we note especially ESL’s valuation is hard in such extraordinary times when dry bulk carriers are off their normal earnings levels. Aspo’s segments still have plenty to go before reaching their long-term financial targets, but we have grown more confident that this year marks the bottoming out for Aspo’s overall profitability. We thus view upside scenarios more likely than downside ones. We retain our EUR 7.25 TP and BUY rating.
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