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Q2 2023 results were a bit weaker than consensus expected. ESL Shipping can reach a 15% EBIT margin in a favourable market environment (e.g. 2021-22) but the margin can drop as low as 7% in a weak environment. ESL Shipping witnessed this market weakness in Q2, and transport volumes for the steel and forest sectors could remain in the doldrums in Q3. Aspo kept its 2023 guidance intact and expects a recovery in Q4, but we still lower our full-year EBIT forecast to EUR 25m. Our new estimates lead to a fair value range of EUR 7.7-9.5 (8.0-9.8) per share, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
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