Atria: Strong Q3 despite soft top line development - Nordea

Atria reported Q3 EBIT of EUR 19.3m, 28% (EUR 4.2m) above Refinitiv consensus. Q3 net sales of EUR 430m were down 2% y/y and came 7% below consensus. However, sales mix was positive as sales decline was driven by lower sales to feed, industrial and export customers. Q3 EBIT beat was due to Finland and Denmark & Estonia, while Sweden came below of our expectation. Atria’s market position has steadily improved in Finland and Estonia. Producer prices have remained above last year level in Finland. There were no items affecting comparability in Q3. Operating cash flow was EUR 10.1m (EUR -7.6m a year ago), supported by lower working capital and higher EBIT. Atria maintains its outlook intact (raised on 11 September) and expects adjusted EBIT to increase from 2023 (after EUR 49m in 2022) while Refinitiv consensus has modelled EUR 52.3m, or 7% increase. Mathematically, Q3 beat translates into 7-8% upward pressure on consensus EBIT estimates. YTD, adjusted EBIT of EUR 20.9m is EUR 7.9m above last year level. We have a fair value range of EUR 12.9-15.8 per Atria share.