Atvexa reported Q2 ‘21/’22 sales of SEK 591m (530m), corresponding to a y-o-y growth of 12% of which 2.4% was organic. Adj. EBIT excl. IFRS 16 was SEK 37m (31m) for a margin of 6.3% (5.8%). The y-o-y improvement was driven by lower personnel expense from a larger utilization of vacation than normal in conjunction with a shortage of temporary staff. We regard this as temporary effect and expect Atvexa’s long-term adj. EBIT margin to be around 5%. Sales and adj. EBIT were 1% behind and 23% ahead of ABGSCe. We also want to highlight that Atvexa’s new CEO is in place, and he has experience from the private sector and international experience. Initially he gives new attention to the company’s exposure to the German preschool market and we think he will be a good fit to drive that expansion in the years to come.
Closes three minor acquisitions after the quarter
We raise our short-term estimates following the deviation in Q2 but think the strong profitability will likely normalize next year. For ‘22/23e we raise sales and adj. EBIT by 1.1% following the closure of three smaller acquisition after the quarter end. The political landscape is unchanged since our last update where a proposition to re-distribute the school voucher more in favor of municipality schools is the most obvious risk to Atvexa. However, historically we have not seen a majority in the government that is for such a change, and if it is to change, we will likely need further research conducted on the school vouchers and what the implications of a change would mean. In June, we await a report from the Swedish National Audit Office on the topic.
Updated fair-value range of SEK 72-118 (71-117)
We only make minor adjustments to our fair-value range of SEK 72-118 (71-117) to reflect our estimate changes. The share is trading at a lease a ...
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