Avtech released preliminary figures for Q4 2025 which fell short of Redeye expectations on both sales and EBITDA. Net sales of SEK12.9m represented 39% y/y growth but came in 11% below Redeye's estimate, whilst EBITDA of SEK5.0m was suppressed by a non-recurring SEK1.1m R&D tax charge. Adjusting for this item, EBITDA remained ~25% below Redeye's expectations, driven primarily by the revenue shortfall. Redeye anticipates trimming its forward estimates, which will negatively impact the fair value range. The firm expects its base case to adjust downward by up to 10%, pending full review of the Q4 report due 6 February 2026. With the share under pressure since the Q3 2025 report, Redeye believes the risk-reward calculus now favours long positions—particularly should the company's pipeline convert during 2026.
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