Inission: We expect growth to accelerate further in Q4 - ABG
* Strong orders should continue to convert into sales growth (17%) * Enedo stabilising as comps ease and cost savings take effect * Earnings recovery: EPS from SEK 3.0 in '25e to SEK 5.2 in '27e
ANNONS
Q4 expectations
Supported by the strong R12m book-to-bill of 1.18x, we expect the sales growth seen in Q3 (14%) to accelerate further in Q4, forecasting 17% (8% from M&A). The majority of the growth will come from the Inission segment, but the comps in Enedo have now started to ease substantially, and we therefore expect its y-o-y comparison to start stabilising in Q4, especially given the segment's YTD book-to-bill of 1.3x. We estimate a group adj. EBITA margin of 6.4% (5.2%), after adjusting for SEK 3.5m (0.6pp) in restructuring costs in Enedo, which we expect to be the last charges taken.
Estimate changes
We cut '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 2%, purely as a result of updated FX rates.
Outlook and valuation
With strong organic growth in the Inission segment, and a clear path to profitability in Enedo given the implemented cost-saving measures and strong book-to-bill in the segment (management expects a return to profitability in Q1), we forecast a significant earnings recovery in the coming two years, as adj. EPS looks set to go from SEK 3.0 in '25e to SEK 4.6/5.2 in '26e/'27e. The share is currently trading at 11x-9x '26e-'27e P/E, compared to its 10-year historical median of 13x-9x and peers at 15x-13x.
