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BankNordik: Improved targets and guidance upgrade ahead - ABG

Insurance income a drag in an otherwise strong Q3
Guidance upgrade is likely, EO DPS next Friday (EGM)
Trading at a 22e P/E of 9x and 6x adj. for ’21 DPS

We expect BankNordik to report Q3’21 profit before loan losses of DKK 40m, down from DKK 47m in Q3’20 due to fires on the Faroe Islands leading to low insurance income of DKK 4m in Q3’21e (DKK 18m Q3’20). We expect NII to rise to DKK 69m from DKK 66m in Q2’21 on lower funding costs and the re-pricing of retail deposits from August; we see flattish lending q-o-q. We expect fee income rising to DKK 17m in Q3’21 (DKK 15m in Q3’20) due to higher AUM and more referred mortgage lending. We see costs down 3% y-o-y while loan losses could see a small net reversal of DKK 5m. We expect CET1 10bp up q-o-q to 25.8%; the DKK 46.8 EO DPS to be decided on the EGM on 22 October is already deducted in CET1. The share is trading exclusive of the EO dividend on 25 October. Note the 35% Faroese dividend withholding tax.

2023e adj. EPS is down 2% (see page 3). We estimate a 2023e RONAV of 10.1%, which would be 9% with normal loan losses of 25bp. We see a ‘22e adj. PE of 9x; adjusted for the DKK 58.7 DPS related to 2021 not yet paid, ‘22e adj. PE is just 6x.
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