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BankNordik: Reversals of loan losses behind Q4 beat - ABG

Q4’21 operating profit came in 28% above ABGSC
Net profit guidance of DKK 130-160m for 2022e
Mid-guidance implies a valuation of P/E 10x for 2022

Q4’21 operating profit came in 28% above ABGSC estimate
The Q4’21 operating profit came in at DKK 86m (49m), 28% above ABGSC. Adjusting for loan losses, the profit before loan losses (PBLL) came in at DKK 46m, which were 2% above ABGSC. The main deviation compared our estimates was loan losses. The strong beat in Q4 was mainly driven by reversals of impairment losses, which indicates a solid quality of the bank’s credit portfolio. In the report, the company also updates some their 2024 targets, where they raise their 2024 ROE target from 8% to more than 10% p.a. The also intend to optimise the capital structure with a CET1-target from 23% to 20% for 2024. Lastly, the bank will maintain their target of a 50% payout ratio supplemented by share buybacks.

Reversals of loan losses behind Q4 earnings beat
Looking at the Q4 details, the net interest income came in at DKK 66m (65m), which was 1% below ABGSC estimate and flat q-o-q. The net commission income grew 21% q-o-q and came in at DKK 23m (16m), 21% higher than ABGSC expected. Total income was roughly in line with ABGSC expectations (-1%). Total cost was 3% below ABGSC, and came in at DKK 57m. The cost/income ratio saw a yearly improvement in the fourth quarter, shrinking with six percentage points, coming in at 55.3% in Q4’21.

Except a rather neutral market reaction today
The FY reported net profit for 2021 of DKK 272m, was in accordance with the bank’s own guidance of around DKK 270m. The bank also reiterates their guidance for a net profit in 2022 in the range of DKK 130-160 million. The mid-point of the guidance is 17% below ABGSC current estimate of DKK 175m for the same year, hence we expect some negative estimate changes for 2022. This also means that the company currently trades at a 2022 P/E of 10x, given their latest net profit mid-point guidance. Given that the Q4 net
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