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Bergs Timber: All stars aligned in Q3 - ABG

Q3: EBITDA likely to rise q-o-q
Delivers on the new growth strategy
Trading at EV/EBITDA of 7-8x for ’22e/’23e

We estimate Q3’21 EBITDA of ~SEK 197m, up from SEK 146m in Q2’21. Q3 will likely see higher prices for the sawmills and wood protection segments (+40%), a positive contribution from the PTPG acquisition, higher raw material costs and lower volumes for the sawmilling segment (production stop during Q3). Sawmilling prices increased in Q3 and were up ~40% q-o-q. However, we note that key sawn goods industry indicators have shown weakness lately. Inventory levels have increased, and new export/domestic orders are down. This could lead to weaker prices into 2022. Bergs Timber will report its Q3 numbers on 28 October. We raise our 2021e EBIT estimates by ~18% based on the strong price growth in Q3.

We expect Bergs to generate EBITDA of ~SEK 480m in ‘21, i.e. it is trading at a ’21e EV/EBITDA of 4x, and EV/EBITDA of 7-8x for ’22e/’23e
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