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BHG: Margin trough - ABG

3.1pp margin drop and soft cash flows
We fear that org. growth rates could come down in Q4
Adj. EBIT estimates trimmed by 5% and 4% (’22-’23e)

Despite a stronger product margin, BHG saw its adj. EBIT margin drop by 3.1pp from the high 8.5% level in Q3’20. The contraction was primarily driven by: 1) higher fulfilment costs on the back of supply chain disruptions, 2) customer acquisition costs due to current elevated competition for clicks, and 3) an overall higher activity within the organisation than last year, partly due to an abnormally low level in Q3’20, coupled with accelerated long-term investments. The Home Furnishing division was particularly challenged as it saw adj. EBIT decline by 41%, despite a significant contribution from recently-made acquisitions. Last, we highlight a surprisingly soft cash flow, which was negatively impacted by a ~40% inventory build-up. However, liquidity remains strong and management stressed that it sees “excellent M&A opportunities”.

Our adj. EBIT estimates have been trimmed by 5% and 4% for ’22e and ’23e, respectively, primarily due to higher opex. We note that the stock took a 17% beating on the reporting day, down 43% over the last six months. As such, multiples have come down clearly: EV/EBITA adj. of 17.0x and 14.6x ’21e and ’22e, respectively.
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