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BHG: Sequentially softer but still going strong - ABG

We expect 5% org. sales growth in Q3’21…
…but adj. EBIT a touch below Q3’20
Raised earnings estimates due to recent M&A

We believe that BHG is likely to report a deceleration in organic sales growth but remain at hefty levels vs 2019. With several DIY-related peers having released solid trading updates, the DIY division seems likely to be the key driver of growth, as seen in previous quarters. We expect organic growth of 10% y-o-y, or 49% versus Q3’19, in DIY. The corresponding figures in Q2’21 were 15% and 74%, respectively. We forecast a significant deceleration in the Home Furnishing segment, which we believe has been negatively affected by eased restrictions. Our estimates suggest organic growth of -3% y-o-y, or 25% versus Q3’19. All in all, we forecast organic sales growth of 5% for the group. In addition, acquisitions are expected to add just below 23% to sales whereas a minor FX effect could weigh on sales by 0.5%. Hence, our total sales estimate of SEK 2.9bn corresponds to total growth of 28%.

We have cut our organic sales assumptions by 1% over the coming years and lower our underlying margin estimates slightly. However, as we add the recently acquired HYMA, AH Trading and Hafa, our ’22-’23 earnings estimates have been raised by 8% and 7%, respectively. Though, with a higher indebtedness (NIBD/EBITDA of 1.7x at year-end), we leave our valuation range of SEK 88-224 unchanged.
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