After a strong Q4’21, we see multiple datapoints suggesting that the normalization in healthcare has continued in Q1. Countries are no longer viewing COVID-19 a “socially critical disease”, and supported by immunity from previous infections and high global rates of vaccination, non-COVID-19 hospital activity has increased to levels not seen since before the pandemic. The comeback in emerging markets has lagged that in developed ones, but vaccination rates have now caught up, which should enable a strong rebound. Boule’s orderbook remains higher than usual, and together with continued demand normalization and higher strength in the OEM business, we see 24% organic growth in Q1’22e and 12% for ‘22e.
Uncertainty over sales in Russia, ’22e-’23e EBIT cut 10%
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine creates uncertainty about Eastern Europe (13% of FY’21 rev.), particularly Russia (ABGSCe ~10%). Boule seeks to continue to supply healthcare in the region with its blood tests and does not foresee any sanctions, as medical supplies generally are exempt, including the current EU/US sanctions. However, the situation will likely cause practical issues, such as the ability to import raw materials or to make payments, which could lead to disruptions of its business. Consequently, we lower sales in Eastern Europe by 50%, while fine-tuning other estimates, leading to 5% and 10% cuts to ’22-’23e sales and EBIT.
Set for ’21-’24e EBIT CAGR of 45% – 22e EV/EBIT of 12x
As operations normalise, we forecast ’21-’24e sales and EBIT CAGRs of 12% and 45%, respectively. In H1’23, we expect Boule to launch the first product of its new product platform, thereby entering a period in which it revitalizes its entire product portfolio, which has remained largely unchanged for a decade. Boule is one of few Nordic Me ...
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