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Bredband2: Strong gross margin looks sustainable - ABG

Sales -1% q-o-q (ABGSCe +1%), 1% adj. EBITDA beat
‘22e-‘23e EBITDA up by 8% (underlying 4%, M&A 4%)
9-8x ‘22e-‘23e EV/EBITDA, 6-7% lease adj. FCF yields

While sales declined 1% q-o-q (-1% vs. ABGSCe) due to a customer decline of -3,600 (hurt by increased churn from the migration of A3’s customers into BRE2), gross profit of SEK 136m for a margin of 35.9% exceeded our forecast at SEK 131m (34.3% GM). This was driven by price hikes together with an improved sales mix (less consultancy and hardware sales). We think that these trends will persist in the coming quarters, and therefore expect the current gross margin level to be maintained. That said, opex adjusted for NRIs of SEK 3.0m was SEK 76m, which was flat q-o-q and came in 5% above ABGSCe. Increased consultancy costs and some other (non-specified) NRIs chiefly explained the deviation. On the back of this, adj. EBITDA was 1% above our forecast, but adj. EBIT came in 11% below due to higher D&A than expected.

Bredband2 continues to reap cost synergies from the merger with A3, and we expect these activities to finish in Q4. In 2022, we expect the company to increase its marketing activities, which in turn will render improved organic growth rates (6% in ‘22e, vs. 3% in ‘21e). Owing to its scalable business model, we forecast adj. EBITDA to grow 23% y-o-y in 2022. On our new estimates, Bredband2’s share is offering lease adj. FCF yields for ’21-’23 of 4-7%.
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