Briox states that the negative impact from the pandemic started to dwindle by June. Even so, we cut our ‘20e-‘22e sales by 11-9% on the back of the softer Q2. We now forecast that Briox will grow its number of sold licenses by 2,484 in 2020, up from 1,585 in 2019. Although we reduce our sales growth assumptions, we raise our ‘20e-‘21e EBIT by 2-6% amid lower costs. We note that Briox has grown its headcount by 11 (or 69%) since Q2’19, and now think that it will keep its headcount flat in the coming quarters. This means that opex growth should decelerate.
New CEO has now announced his first earnings report
Briox’s new CEO, Johan Nordqvist, is now in place and we believe that his initial focus will be on 1) growing its ARR, 2) expanding its number of subscribers and 3) intensifying the firm’s focus on the accounting bureaus. Its share is currently trading at 82-27x EV/sales on our new estimates for 2020-2022.
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