Cantargia: Next phase of clinical development in sight - Edison

Following a period of increased clinical activity, Q422, as we noted previously, saw Cantargia narrow its development focus to its three most promising/advanced programmes. In our opinion, this was driven by a combination of financing considerations (given the bearish biotech sentiment) and early efficacy signals. The clinical focus in FY23 will be on progressing it lead asset, nadunolimab (CAN04), in controlled, randomised trials in pancreatic cancer (PDAC), non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and triple negative breast cancer (TNBC), although the first two trials are likely to start about six months later than our prior estimates. The FY22 operating loss of SEK381.5m (SEK370.3m in FY21) was largely due to R&D expenses of SEK364.7m (up 3% y-o-y). End-FY22 net cash (SEK426.7m, including short-term investments) provides a runway to mid-2024, per our projections. We have rolled forward our model and adjusted our estimates, resulting in a valuation of SEK6.6bn or SEK39.6/share (SEK7.5bn or SEK44.9/share previously).