CapMan: Soft Q1 driven by FX impacts on fair - Nordea

CapMan reported Q1 EBIT of 0.5m, clearly below Refinitiv consensus. The deviation is partly explained by FX impacts on fair value changes and carry, while we note also soft Management company business profitability. Investment business EBIT was EUR -2.5m (fair value changes EUR -2.4m) in Q1 and came well below Nordea estimate of EUR 1.9m (EUR +2.1m fair value changes). Management Company EBIT of EUR 3.2m came 63% below Nordea estimate driven partly by EUR 0m carry booking (we had modelled EUR 4m). When excluding carry, management fees came 2% below our estimate, while EBIT came 30% below our estimate. Service Business EBIT of EUR 1.5m came below Nordea estimate of EUR 1.3m. AuM increased slightly to EUR 5.1bn (EUR 5.0bn in Q4 and flat y/y) and the company expects growth to continue in AuM in 2023. CapMan has raised EUR 110m in new capital during Q1 and notes that it has significant amounts of dry powder (we estimate around 30% of capital raised). The company has multiple funds close to carry and multiple exit processes in funds that generate carry if they are realised. Owing to soft Management company profitability, we believe the consensus to make negative underlying estimate revisions on the back of Q1 report.