CapMan: Solid underlying Q4 with boost from positive fair value changes - Nordea

CapMan’s underlying performance in Q4 was solid and slightly above our estimates. Management company business sales (excl. carried interest) was EUR 13.2m (+21% y/y), or 4% above our estimate (delta EUR 0.5m). Carried interest of EUR 0.5m was exactly as we expected. Similarly, management company business adj. EBIT of EUR 3.0m was EUR 0.7m above our estimate. Investment business EBIT of EUR 4.7m beat our estimate of EUR -1.3m due to booked fair value changes, which almost entirely explains the deviation to our estimates, combined with solid management company business performance. AUM grew to EUR 6.1bn (+22% y/y), exactly as we expected. EUR ~140m of new capital was raised during Q4, we calculate, a total of EUR 570m during 2024. EPS of EUR 0.37 contains proceeds from the sale of CaPS and the DPS of EUR 0.14 was preliminarily announced (yield of ~8% on yesterday’s close). Based on the fairly in line underlying results and major deviations only on fair value changes, we believe consensus estimate revisions could also be limited.