* Margin pressure to remain in H1'26e * We cut our '26-'27 EBIT estimates by 15% and 9% * Share is trading at 9x-7x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT
ANNONS
EBIT materially lower than anticipated
Careium delivered solid sales in Q4, with organic growth of 6.3% despite tough comps due to the lack of financial leases. Adjusted for this effect, organic growth would have been 13% in Q4 and 9% for 2025 (compared to the reported 1%). While sales were 4% above our expectations, EBIT was materially lower (SEK 8m vs. ABGSCe 24m). Opex grew 23% y-o-y and was driven partly by short-term costs related to new contracts and the phasing out of old assets, as well as investments in personnel and R&D. The FY'25 adj. EBIT margin of 6.3% is the lowest since 2022, and adj. EBIT decreased 36% y-o-y.
2026e: lighter comps but elevated costs
Going into 2026, there are tailwinds from lighter comps alongside margin headwinds due to the elevated cost base. The report commented that the margin pressure in Q4 will remain throughout H1'26. Of the several factors driving opex growth mentioned by management, some seem to be more long-term than others. While no specifications were made, we assume that the costs from e.g. phasing out old assets and upfront costs from new contracts are more short-term, and that the investments made in new sales personnel and R&D will remain throughout 2026. On a more positive note, '26e will face much lighter comps than did 2025, as '25 sales did not include material upfront revenues from financial leases.
We lower our EBIT estimates
We raise '26e-'27e sales by 1% on the back of the report and updated FX movements. Our '26e-'27e EBIT estimates are down -15% and -9%, respectively,, due to the commentary on continued margin pressure. Our estimates, meanwhile, imply '26e-'28e sales and EBIT CAGRs of 6% and 20%. On our updated estimates, the share is trading at 9x-7x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT. We lower our fair value range to SEK 20-34 (23-38).
