* Q2 sales 10% above our ests. at SEK 251m, for 26% org. growth * Adj. EBIT SEK 15m vs. ABGSCe 10m * Trading at 12x-9x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA adj.
ANNONS
An exceptional growth quarter on a forgiving comp
Q2 came in better than expected on all accounts. Careium delivered sales of SEK 251m (10% vs ABGSCe 228m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth ex. FX of 25.6% (12.6pp vs ABGSCe 13.0%). Segment wise, service sales was SEK 179m, and product sales was SEK 72m. The gross margin decreased by 0.8pp to 42.5% (0.3pp vs ABGSCe 42.2%). Opex came in at SEK -92m (7% vs ABGSCe -86m). EBIT amounted to SEK 15m (48% vs ABGSCe 10m), for a margin of 6.0% (1.5pp vs ABGSCe 4.5%), vs. 4.9% Q2'25. The Nordics grew by 14%, and all remanding regions reported growth above 30%, which is impressive. The only sub-segment that was down was product sales in the Nordics. However, keep in mind that Q2'25 posted -12% growth, providing light comps. FCF was positive in the quarter and came in at SEK 4.7m (vs. 1m Q2'25), driven by the strong earnings but somewhat dragged down by working capital build-up. H1'26 FCF is still negative, at SEK -9m.
Well on its way but not quite there yet
We are encouraged by the better-than-expected earnings, and believe that Careium still has room to increase its margins going forward. While the EBIT margin improved y-o-y, earnings are still being weighed down by product development, partly driven by a lower capitalisation ratio, and growth initiatives. The gross margin was also negatively affected by an installation project of SEK 5.5m with a "limited margin", in connection with the A2D transformation in the UK. Moreover, the previously mentioned onboarding of a large contract in Norway continued to add margin pressure through upfront costs. The technical integration is described as complete, which could be read as the margin drag from onboarding starting to roll off, but management doesn't say this explicitly for guidance purposes.
Hybrid loan settled, creating a possibility of dividends
We also note, from yesterday's press release, that Careium will fully settle its SEK 64m hybrid loan to its former owner Doro. It will pay SEK 35m in July '26, and the remaining SEK 29m will be written off, increasing retained earnings in Q3'26. This does not affect earnings because the hybrid loan was already accounted for as equity. Mainly funded by existing cash, but it may need to draw on its credit facility. The main positive is that Careium is now free to distribute dividends, which the hybrid loan previously did not allow. On our unrevised estimates, the share is trading at 12x-9x ‘26e-'27e EV/EBITA adj. The positive mechanical effect for consensus '26e-'28e EBIT should be within a mid-single-digit range. We hope to get more details on during the conference call at 10.30 CET. Link to the webcast here.
