Ramp-up in sales, but with higher costs
We expect Cavotec's delivery ramp-up to have continued in Q4e, resulting in sales of EUR 46m, up 45% y-o-y and 9% q-o-q, supported by steady growth in its Industry (~30% of sales) business and improving deliveries from its Ports & Maritime (P&M, ~70%) segment. Demand has likely remained solid in early 2023, due to high activity among Cavotec's mining and industry customers, while shore power demand should continue to gather pace due to regulatory drivers. However, we fear that cost headwinds have remained. As a result, we forecast a small EBIT loss in Q4e, and likely also in Q1'23e, before margins begin to gradually ramp-up during 2023e. For the full year we expect higher volumes, subsiding cost headwinds and mix to lift margins towards ~6%, before surpassing the 10% mark in 2024e (10.4%). We expect Q4 FCF to have remained around zero, but that financing terms with the banks remain favourable until higher sales in 2023e should yield positive FCF already in H1'23e and result in a ND/EBITDA of 1.2x by YE'22e.
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